In recent days, Russia has amassed tens of thousands of soldiers in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass and has intensified artillery attacks in the same area, even carrying out several dozen in a single day. Military analysts, Ukrainian government officials and NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg believe Russia is preparing for a new offensive, likely concentrated in eastern Ukraine, the only one it has so far managed to partially gain control of.
According to Stoltenberg, Russia could commit over 200,000 soldiers to the new offensive. Various hypotheses have been made about the timing: according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov Russia could start the operation as early as next February 24, the first anniversary of the start of the invasion. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a military study center which follows the progress of the war on a daily basis, believes that the offensive will begin in any case between the end of February and the beginning of March.
Its duration will depend on the army’s successes in the field, says the ISW, which estimates a six-month offensive. Andriy Yusov, of the Ukrainian military intelligence, predicts that the most active phase of the fighting will last about two months. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are trying to maintain control of the areas currently under attack, and the army has announced that it is planning a major counter-offensive to be launched by next summer.
The massing of Russian forces in the Donbass began mainly after General Valery Gerasimov was appointed commander of Russian operations in Ukraine. He is the Russian Army Chief of Staff, the highest-ranking officer in the Russian Armed Forces, and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin. Putin appointed him in mid-January, replacing the previous commander after just three months, in an attempt to turn the tide of the war in a more favorable direction for Russia.
Since Gerasimov’s appointment, Russia has steadily added soldiers to the Donbass. According to Yosuv, the objective of the offensive will be to focus on the numerical strength of the soldiers, and therefore not only on the artillery, to try to break through the Ukrainian defense lines and gain ground. Ukrainian officials and military analysts quoted by the New York Times they also spoke of the possibility that the Russian army will open new fronts even in the northernmost areas of Ukraine, such as Kharkiv.
On Putin’s intentions, Stoltenberg and a number of analysts have been very clear: at the moment there are no indications or signs of any Russian willingness to negotiate a peace or to question its initial objectives. Indeed, Putin is continuing to base his internal propaganda on the chance of a win in Ukraine, and seems willing to tolerate big losses just to try again.
